Because That 85% Chance of the President Winning Again in 2020
Pew Research Middle conducted this study to understand American voters' attitudes toward and appointment with the 2022 presidential election and campaigns. For this assay, we surveyed U.Southward. adults online and past phone.
We surveyed eleven,001 U.S. adults online – including ix,114 registered voters – in July and August 2020. Everyone who took function is a member of Pew Inquiry Center's American Trends Console (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way most all U.S. adults have a chance of pick. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population past gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, educational activity and other categories. Read more than about the ATP'southward methodology.
We also surveyed 1,750 U.S. adults by telephone – including 1,455 registered voters – in July and Baronial 2020. The surveys were conducted in both English and Castilian over the phone under the management of Abt Associates. Respondents to this survey were randomly selected via a combination of landline and cell phone random-digit-dial samples. To ensure that the results of this survey reflect a balanced cantankerous-department of the nation, the data are weighted to match the U.Southward. adult population by gender, age, education, race and ethnicity and other categories.
Here are the questions used for the report, along with responses, and its methodology.
As Democrats and Republicans fix for their party conventions, a new national survey finds high voter appointment with the presidential campaign – and a tape share saying it "really matters" who wins in November when information technology comes to making progress on important national bug.
However the coronavirus outbreak continues to cast a big shadow over the 2022 presidential election. Simply half of U.S. registered voters (50%) say it will be very or somewhat easy to vote in the upcoming elections, while well-nigh the same share (49%) expects to take difficulties casting a ballot. That is a substantial modify since October 2018, before long earlier that year'due south midterm elections, when 85% of registered voters said it would exist easy to vote.
Voters who support Donald Trump are far more likely than those who back up Joe Biden to say it will be piece of cake to vote this twelvemonth. All the same, the shares of both Trump and Biden supporters who look it will exist easy to vote are much lower than the shares of voters who said this in 2022 – regardless of which party's candidate they supported.
There also are stark differences betwixt Trump and Biden supporters about how they prefer to vote. Virtually registered voters who support Trump or lean toward supporting him would rather vote in person in the presidential ballot (80%), either on Election Day (lx%) or earlier (20%); only 17% prefer to vote by mail. By contrast, a majority of voters who back up or lean toward supporting Biden say their preference is to vote by mail in the presidential election (58%).
In the midst of a pandemic that has taken more than 160,000 American lives and ravaged the nation's economy, interest in the presidential entrada is near equally high as information technology was in June 2022 and much higher than during the previous iii elections when incumbent presidents were on the ballot.
Currently, 83% of registered voters say it actually matters who wins the presidency, up from 74% four years agone and the highest share proverb this in two decades of Pew Enquiry Middle surveys. Nearly identical shares of registered voters in both parties say it actually matters who prevails; other indicators of engagement with the election are every bit high among Republican and Democratic voters.
With less than iii months until Election Solar day, Biden has an advantage over Trump in voter preferences: 53% of registered voters say if the election were held today they would vote for Biden or lean toward voting for him, while 45% support or lean toward voting for Trump.
At this signal, Biden has a broader base of support among voters, while Trump'southward support is much stronger. Two-thirds of Trump's supporters (66%) say they back up him strongly, compared with fewer than half (46%) of Biden'southward supporters.
Even so, nigh identical shares of Biden and Trump supporters say they are certain to vote for their candidate in the presidential election (84% of Biden supporters, 85% of Trump supporters).
While about all of the "strong" supporters of both Biden and Trump say they are certain to vote for their preferred candidate, 90% of Biden's "moderate" supporters limited certainty virtually voting for him; a somewhat smaller bulk of Trump supporters (83%) say they are certain to vote for him.
For Biden supporters, opposition to Trump is by far the nigh frequently mentioned reason why they back up him. Asked an open-ended question near the main reason they support or lean toward Biden, a 56% majority of his supporters cite their opposition to Trump; far fewer mention Biden'south leadership or performance as a candidate (xix%) or his personality (13%).
Past comparison, Trump supporters cite a variety of reasons for supporting him, including his leadership and operation as president (23%), his consequence and policy positions, too as their opposition to Biden (19%).
This is very different from the 2022 presidential campaign, when opposition to the other candidate was amongst the summit reasons given by supporters of both Trump and Hillary Clinton for their voting decisions.
The concerns expressed by Trump and Biden supporters near their own candidate besides are very different. As was the example during the 2022 entrada, many voters who back up Trump have reservations about his temperament: In an open-ended question, 25% mention an aspect of his temperament as their biggest concern, with another 14% specifically citing his tweeting.
For Biden, by contrast, the near frequently mentioned concerns among his supporters center on his age and health. Well-nigh a third of Biden supporters (31%) say that his age or his wellness is what concerns them about him – far more than than the shares citing his issue or policy positions (15%) or other concerns. Just 1% of Trump supporters express concerns about his age or wellness.
The study of voters' views of the 2022 presidential campaign, which includes views of the candidates and the parties, the importance of major issues and concerns about voting amid the coronavirus outbreak, is based on ii national surveys by Pew Research Centre: A survey conducted July 27-Aug. 2 amid 11,001 adults, including ix,114 registered voters, on the Centre's American Trends Panel; and a separate survey, conducted July 23-Aug. 4 on cellphones and landlines among 1,750 adults, including 1,455 registered voters.
Other major findings of the surveys
Biden supporters say they'd be relieved if he wins and angry if Trump wins. A majority of Biden supporters (77%) say they would be relieved if he wins the ballot; simply sixteen% say they'd be excited. And a larger share of Biden supporters (61%) say they would be angry if Trump wins, compared with Hillary Clinton supporters in 2022 (46% angry). Today, more than Trump supporters say they would be relieved (61%) than excited (30%) if their candidate wins this year. And while 37% of Trump supporters say they would be aroused if Biden wins, that is lower than the share who said they would be angry if Clinton won in 2022 (46%).
Voters are divided over who they recall will win. Half of registered voters say that, regardless of whom they support, they think Trump will win the presidential election, while about equally many (48%) expect a Biden victory. Throughout the 2022 entrada, majorities of voters consistently said they expected Clinton to win.
The economy is voters' top issue. A sizable majority of registered voters (79%) say the economy will be very of import in their decision about whom to vote for; smaller shares say health care (68%), Supreme Court appointments (64%) and the coronavirus outbreak (62%) are very important bug. Trump supporters overwhelmingly cite the economy as a very important result (88%), while large majorities of Biden supporters say health intendance (84%) and the coronavirus outbreak (82%) are very of import to their vote.
GOP leads on the economic system but trails on other issues, including the coronavirus. By 49% to xl%, registered voters are more than likely to say the Republican Party, rather than the Democratic Party, can do a meliorate job on the economy. The Democratic Party holds broad leads on several issues, including climate modify, abortion and contraception, health intendance, issues involving race and ethnicity, and handling the public health impacts of the coronavirus outbreak. About half of voters (47%) say the Democratic Party could do a better job in handling the public health bear upon of the coronavirus outbreak, compared with 35% who say the GOP could do better.
Record share of voters run into clear differences betwixt the candidates. Fully 86% of registered voters say Trump and Biden have different positions on the issues, the highest share saying this in presidential elections dating to 2000 (this question was not asked in 2016). And just 8% of voters agree that either candidate would make a good president. That is only slightly lower than four years ago, but in 2012 nearly a quarter of voters (24%) agreed that either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would make a skillful president.
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Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/13/election-2020-voters-are-highly-engaged-but-nearly-half-expect-to-have-difficulties-voting/
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